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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.